155. Predicting Technology Shifts Before they Happen (Tim O’Reilly)

Tim O'Reilly The Full Rachet

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The Trend Spotter joins us today on the program. Tim O’Reilly is one of the top minds in tech, who has predicted and/or driven many of the movements that now seem so obvious to us. In today’s episode we discuss:

  • Tim’s path to becoming an investor
  • How he linked up w/ Bryce and launched O’Reilly Alphatech
  • The shift in their model w/ Indie VC
  • We talk about Tim’s focus on profitability and his counter to those that cite some of the biggest and best tech companies that are not profitable
  • We discuss Tim’s new book WTF: What the future and why it’s up to us
  • Tim outlines the way he thinks about business model maps
  • He explains his thought process of identifying technology shifts before they happen
  • We discuss fear and it’s role in shaping consumer mindset
  • Tim talks about the role of AI and if it poses a threat to jobs
  • Tim references the historical lessons most overlooked by today’s society
  • and we wrap up w/ a conversation on ICOs and cryptocurrencies and get Tim’s opinion on their role in the future of tech

 WTF What's the Future The Full Ratchet

Guest Links:

 

Quick Takeaways:

1. Being too close to the bullseye is a big risk. Tech companies can come in and crush you.

2. In order to dominate a market, you need to have more than 50% market share and be able to grow faster than the market as a whole.

3. Many entrepreneurs end up looking more like actors in Hollywood than real entrepreneurs. Real entrepreneurs build primarily w/ customer money and only secondarily w/ VC money.

4. Cash flow is the most critical metric in business.

5. A real, successful company should provide value not just for suppliers or shareholders but all its stakeholders.

6. We are gaining more jobs in e-commerce than we are losing in retail, and those e-commerce jobs pay better.

7. The killer app for the Internet of Things is not Nest, it’s Uber.

8. Companies like Microsoft lost their prime position when they changed from creating value for all to extracting value for themselves.

9. AI is a technology like any other. It’s a tool that will work in collaboration with humans, not one that will compete with humans.

10. If you wanted to build AI that couldn’t be turned off, you’d do it on a blockchain foundation.

 

FULL TRANSCRIPT